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Thematics :

Some innovations look as though they tick all the right boxes but never catch on, while others are embraced wholeheartedly against all expectations. A new study co-authored by Diana Mangalagiu, an associate professor at NEOMA Business School, explores the reasons why and emphasises the importance of public perception, government support and the development of suitable infrastructure.

The use of video calls skyrocketed during the Covid-19 epidemic and lockdown even though the technology had already been around… for over 50 years! One of the earliest “picturephones” even made an appearance in Stanley Kubrick’s 1968 classic movie 2001: A Space Odyssey. AT&T had showcased the device a few years previously at the New York International Fair, giving visitors the opportunity to chat and see each other remotely using a handset and screen. The company even opened picturephone booths at the time in New York, Washington and Chicago, although they were cold-shouldered by the public and soon disappeared.

And yet this is far from a one-off case: the history of technological innovation, much like science fiction, is full of ideas that seemed good at the time but didn’t gain traction. Digital photo frames, to take one example, fell out of favour in a matter of years.

Understanding the mechanics of “positive tipping points”

A recent study by Franziska Mey, Diana Mangalagiu and Johan Lilliestam, published in the journal Global Environmental Change helps us make sense of these “positive tipping points”. This concept refers to the various factors that incentivise various actors to adopt or reject an innovation in a given socio-technical system.

The researchers focus on two case studies: the transition, with varying degrees of success, to electric cars in Norway and Germany; and the still-immature adoption of photovoltaic panels in the energy system in Germany. The underlying challenge is also to work out how to encourage the general public to transition to cleaner technologies.

Three core levers

Although it’s never easy to predict the future, the study highlights three fundamental principles that can help facilitate – and even anticipate – this type of shift:

  • The new technology must be perceived as being better than existing solutions

The notion of status quo bias is used in cognitive psychology to explain why we are so afraid of change: the potential losses are tangible, while the potential gains are more abstract – hence we spontaneously tend to prefer maintaining the existing state of affairs. To cancel out this bias, an innovation must be presented and perceived as being far superior to the technology it aims to supplant.

In Norway, for example, a powerful ecological narrative has facilitated the acceptance of electric vehicles by emphasising their advantages over traditional cars. The situation in Germany, on the other hand, is quite different: the debate about the environmental benefits of EVs is more polarised, which has fuelled scepticism among a significant portion of the population. Electric cars have even become a controversial political symbol, associated with a form of green activism that could threaten the German automobile industry, a cornerstone of the country’s national identity and economy.

  • The technology must be easily accessible – especially when it comes to cost

To go back to Norway, tax incentives have been highly instrumental in cutting the cost of electric vehicles compared to petrol cars. State support has remained stable since the 1990s in spite of political changes, fostering a climate of long-term trust in the new technology.

In Germany, by contrast, political support has ebbed and flowed. The initial subsidies were swiftly reduced, due in no small part to lobbying efforts by the automobile industry and the influence it wields over the legislative process. All of which means that the cost of an electric vehicle is still higher than the cost of a petrol car! This is particularly true for mid-range and lower-end models, which demotivates low-income households and restricts their ability to change their mode of transportation.

  • Suitable infrastructure is essential

But perhaps the most significant barrier to the take-up of EVs in Germany, its “Achilles heel” in the words of the researchers, has been the lack of infrastructure. Although fast charging points have been set up along major routes to make long-distance travel easier, there is still no sufficiently large, standardised countrywide network to ensure the risk-free use of electric cars. People living in large cities who don’t have a charging point at home may face considerable challenges in recharging their vehicle on a daily basis.

Norway boasts a more extensive and varied infrastructure, which is also better suited to the needs of users. But, as the study points out, even there it is the main area for improvement if electric vehicles are to become the norm.

Anticipating virtuous cycles

When these three critical levers align, an innovation may embark on a virtuous cycle: the take-up rate of the new technology rises, it is perceived positively by a growing number of people, it becomes easier to access, the infrastructure is adapted to support it, and so forth.

The situation with photovoltaic panels in Germany suggests a similar outcome. A combination of political and tax incentives has fed a growing perception that the technology is more attractive than fossil fuels, especially since it is cheaper and more environmentally friendly. The relatively constant stance taken by the state means that the market has developed in a climate of public trust.

Despite this progress, there are still obstacles in the way: supply has grown too rapidly, for instance, while the social and environmental infrastructure has not kept up. And yet, the authors anticipate that the technology will probably enter a virtuous cycle within the next decade.

Predicting the timing of a positive tipping point is not an exact science: socio-technical systems are complex, multifactorial entities that are inevitably reduced to a handful of simpler variables in a scientific analysis. The study also stresses that a transformation process is never linear: a “positive tipping point” can take place over years, even decades. Furthermore, additional research is required to determine whether this analytical framework can be applied to other technological – and even to other types of socio-economic or political innovations.

Find out more

Franziska Mey, Diana Mangalagiu and Johan Lilliestam, Anticipating socio-technical tipping points, Global Environmental Change, December 2024 – doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102911