![](https://neoma-bs.com/sites/default/files/uploaded_images/profs-neoma_0.png)# SBRANA Giacomo

 

 

 
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- SBRANA Giacomo
 
  

 

    ![](/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/uploaded_images/photos_academ/22-sbrana-giacomo.jpg?itok=9fTgk9aM)SBRANA Giacomo

 Full Professor

  

 <giacomo.sbrana@neoma-bs.fr> 

 

 

 

 - About
 - Academic publications
 
  

 

    [Information Systems, Supply Chain &amp; Decision Making](https://neoma-bs.com/departements/information-systems-supply-chain-decision-making) 

    Post-Doctorate in Econometrics 

 

Giacomo SBRANA is Full professor at NEOMA Business School since 2019. He joined the school as assistant professor in August 2011 and became Associate professor in 2014. Before joining NEOMA, from 2005 until 2009, he worked as associate expert at the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations in New York (USA).

Giacomo holds a M.Sc. in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Southampton (obtained in 2003), a PhD in Statistics from the University of Roma TRE (obtained in 2004) and a postdoc at BETA, Université de Strasbourg (from 2009 until 2011).

His teaching activities mainly focus on statistics and quantitative methods also coding with Python and R at both undergraduate (MiM programme) and postgraduate level (MSc and PhD).

His primary research interests include time series analysis and forecasting especially using State-Space models and the Kalman filter. He has published in several academic journals such as: International Journal of Production Economics, Journal of Banking &amp; Finance, International Journal of Forecasting, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cliometrica, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Economic Modelling, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Bulletin of Economic Research

 

 ###  Areas of research 



- Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
- State-space models, Kalman filter
 
  

 

##   Recent academic contributions  

 SBRANA, G., M.-Z. BABAI, "Non-negative autoregressive moving average models for intermittent demand: Forecast accuracy and inventory implications", *European Journal of Operational Research*, June 2026  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.06.009 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.06.009)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., H. YU, "Forecasting retail fuel demand in Chinese gasoline stations: a structural (double) damped trend approach", *Journal of the Operational Research Society*, January 2025, vol. 76, no. 1, pp. 155-166  DOI : [ 10.1080/01605682.2024.2333321 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2024.2333321)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A. SILVESTRINI, "The structural Theta method and its predictive performance in the M4-Competition", *International Journal of Forecasting*, July-September 2025, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 940-952  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.08.003 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.08.003)

  

 

 

 

 

##   Publications  

 SBRANA, G., M.-Z. BABAI, "Non-negative autoregressive moving average models for intermittent demand: Forecast accuracy and inventory implications", *European Journal of Operational Research*, June 2026  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.06.009 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.06.009)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., H. YU, "Forecasting retail fuel demand in Chinese gasoline stations: a structural (double) damped trend approach", *Journal of the Operational Research Society*, January 2025, vol. 76, no. 1, pp. 155-166  DOI : [ 10.1080/01605682.2024.2333321 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2024.2333321)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A. SILVESTRINI, "The structural Theta method and its predictive performance in the M4-Competition", *International Journal of Forecasting*, July-September 2025, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 940-952  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.08.003 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.08.003)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., "Markov Walk and Walmart sales prediction", *Journal of the Operational Research Society*, September 2025  DOI : [ 10.1080/01605682.2025.2569661 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2025.2569661)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., M. PELAGATTI, "Optimal hierarchical EWMA forecasting ", *International Journal of Forecasting*, April 2024, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 616-625  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.12.008 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.12.008)

  

 

 PELAGATTI, M., G. SBRANA, "Estimating correlations among elliptically distributed random variables under any form of heteroskedasticity", *Quantitative Finance*, March 2024, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 451-464  DOI : [ 10.1080/14697688.2023.2278502 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2023.2278502)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., "Modelling intermittent time series and forecasting COVID-19 spread in the USA", *Journal of the Operational Research Society*, February 2023, vol. 74, no. 2, pp. 465-475  DOI : [ 10.1080/01605682.2022.2055499 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2022.2055499)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A. SILVESTRINI, "The RWDAR model: A novel state-space approach to forecasting", *International Journal of Forecasting*, April 2023, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 922-937  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.03.003 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.03.003)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., P. ANTONETTI, "Persistence modeling for sales prediction: A simple, self-contained approach", *Journal of Business Research*, November 2023, vol. 166, no. 114103  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.jbusres.2023.114103 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2023.114103)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A. SILVESTRINI, "Random coefficient state-space model: Estimation and performance in M3–M4 competitions", *International Journal of Forecasting*, January 2022, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 352-366  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.06.003 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.06.003)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., "High-dimensional Holt-Winters trend model: Fast estimation and prediction", *Journal of the Operational Research Society*, March 2021, vol. 72, no. 3, pp. 701-713  DOI : [ 10.1080/01605682.2019.1700183 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2019.1700183)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Forecasting with the damped trend model using the structural approach", *International Journal of Production Economics*, August 2020, vol. 226, pp. 107654  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijpe.2020.107654 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2020.107654)

  

 

 POLONI, F., G.SBRANA, "Closed-form results for vector moving average models with a univariate estimation approach", *Econometrics and Statistics*, April 2019, no. 10, pp. 27-52  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ecosta.2018.06.003 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2018.06.003)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Random switching exponential smoothing : a new estimation approach", *International Journal of Production Economics*, May 2019, vol. 211, pp. 211-220  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.01.038 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.01.038)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., C. MORANA, "Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis", *Economic Modelling*, May 2019, vol. 81, pp. 274-294  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.020 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.020)

  

 

 POLONI, F., G.SBRANA, "Multivariate trend-cycle extraction with the Hodrick-Prescott filter", *Macroeconomic Dynamics*, September 2017, vol. 21, no. 6, pp. 1336-1360  DOI : [ http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100515000887 ](https://dx.doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100515000887)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, F.VENDITTI, "Short-term inflation forecasting: The M.E.T.A. approach", *International Journal of Forecasting*, October 2017, vol. 4, no. 33, pp. 1065–1081  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.06.007 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.06.007)

  

 

 POLONI, F., G.SBRANA, "A note on forecasting demand using the multivariate exponential smoothing framework", *International Journal of Production Economics*, April 2015, vol. 162, pp. 143-150  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.01.017 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.01.017)

  

 

 POLONI , F., G.SBRANA, "Feasible generalized least squares estimation of multivariate GARCH (1,1) models", *Journal of Multivariate Analysis*, August 2014, vol. 129, pp. 151–159  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.jmva.2014.04.015 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2014.04.015)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting", *International Journal of Production Economics*, October 2014, vol. 156, pp. 283–294  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.06.016 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.06.016)

  

 

 GRIGOLI, F., G.SBRANA, "Determinants and Dynamics of Schooling and Child Labor in Bolivia", *Bulletin of Economic Research*, May 2013, vol. 65, no. Supplément s1, pp. s17-s37  DOI : [ 10.1111/j.1467-8586.2012.00462.x ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2012.00462.x)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Aggregation of exponential smoothing processes with an application to portfolio risk evaluation", *Journal of Banking and Finance*, May 2013, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 1437-1450  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.06.015 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.06.015)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., F.POLONI, "A closed-form estimator for the multivariate GARCH (1,1) model", *Journal of Multivariate Analysis*, September 2013, vol. 120, pp. 152-162  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.jmva.2013.05.005 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2013.05.005)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Forecasting aggregate demand: Analytical comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches in a multivariate exponential smoothing framework", *International Journal of Production Economics*, November 2013, vol. 146, no. 1, pp. 185-198  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.ijpe.2013.06.022 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2013.06.022)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Temporal aggregation of cyclical models with business cycle applications", *Statistical Methods and Applications*, June 2012, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 93-107  DOI : [ 10.1007/s10260-011-0181-0. ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10260-011-0181-0.)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., "The exact linkage between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions", *Economic Modelling*, September 2012, vol. 30, pp. 311-316  DOI : [ 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.039 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.039)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., "Forecasting aggregated moving average processes with an application to the Euro-area real interest rate", *Journal of Forecasting*, January 2012, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 85-98 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Comparing aggregate and disaggregate forecasts of first order moving average models", *Statistical Papers*, May 2012, vol. 53, no. 2, pp. 255-263 

 SBRANA, G., "Damped trend exponential smoothing: prediction and control", *Journal of Quantitative Economics*, July 2012, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 152-159 

 SBRANA, G., "Aggregation and marginalization of GARCH processes: some further results", *Metron : International journal of Statistics*, March 2012, vol. 70, no. 2-3, pp. 165-172 

 SBRANA, G., "Structural time series models and aggregation: some analytical results", *Journal of Time Series Analysis*, May 2011, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 315-316  DOI : [ 10.1111/j.1467-9892.2010.00701 ](https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2010.00701)

  

 

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Measuring core inflation in Italy comparing aggregate vs. disaggregate price data", *Cliometrica*, August 2011, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 239-258 

 SBRANA, G., "On the use of area-wide models in the Euro-zone: the money demand case", *Statistical Methods and Applications*, November 2008, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 499-518 

 SBRANA, G., "Testing for model selection in predicting aggregate variables", *Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia*, March 2007, vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 3-27 

 SBRANA, G., "Una generalizzazione del metodo L.O.D.E. per la stima dei parametri strutturali di un sistema di equazioni simultanee", *Quaderni di Statistica*, January 2001, vol. 3, pp. 107-125 

 

 

 

##   Chapters  

 SBRANA, G., A.SILVESTRINI, "Marginalization and aggregation of exponential smoothing models in forecasting portfolio volatility" in *Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Science and Finance*., Ed., Springer Verlag, pp. 375-382, 2011 

 

 

 

##   Research seminars  

 SBRANA, G., "Portfolio risk evaluation: univariate and multivariate approaches" *Brown Bag Seminar - Pôle Finance Responsable - Rouen Business School*. 2012, Rouen, France 

 SBRANA, G., "Portfolio risk evaluation: A simple (but rigorous) alternative to "Riskmetrics"" *Brown Bag Seminar - Pôle Finance Responsable - Rouen Business School*. 2012, Rouen, France 

 SBRANA, G., "Closed form results for Multivariate volatility models" *Brown Bag Seminar - Pôle Finance Responsable - Rouen Business School*. 2012, Rouen, France