Management or the art of anticipating: the use of forecasting models

Forecasting is a tool used in business and industry to predict the future behaviour of customers. One of the most popular statistical models of forecasting is the so-called damped trend model.

Giacomo Sbrana (NEOMA Business School) and Andrea Silvestrini (Bank of Italy) use a real macroeconomic data set with 270 one-time series and covering almost 50 economies, to propose an approach that might outperform the standard one. A simple, rigorous and easy to use tool that can help the practice of predicting future data.

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Forecasting with the damped trend model using the structural approach, Giacomo Sbrana, Andrea Silvestrini. International Journal of Production Economics, Volume 226, August 2020, 107654.