Why is green hydrogen still – and always – an emerging technology? A study led by Valéry Michaux, a researcher at NEOMA, highlights a two-fold dynamic: on the one hand, the energy transition and massive investment; on the other, the inertia of industrial systems that is holding back the technology.

Green hydrogen has been the energy of tomorrow for the last 25 years, which begs the question: Why hasn’t it ever become the energy of today? After all, hydrogen has been touted as the key to clean mobility, “fuelling” political hopes and industrial strategies as well as attracting billions of dollars of investment. And yet, in the race for carbon-free mobility, hydrogen-powered cars have been overtaken by their electric counterparts, which are now leading the charge. Why has it been such a struggle for green hydrogen to gain traction? Valéry Michaux’s research unravels the reasons why hydrogen is locked in a state of perpetual emergence, pointing to industrial inertia, institutional barriers and shifting energy priorities.

Is hydrogen just an industrial illusion?

The study begins with a review of the last decade, revealing that even 10 years ago hydrogen was not a new phenomenon; in fact, it has been generating patents since 1890! The technology has attracted growing interest since the early 2000s with the advent of “green” hydrogen produced from water and renewable electricity. On paper at least, it boasts unmistakable advantages, including rapid charging and extended battery life. But hydrogen still faces high production costs, and is heavily reliant on renewable energy infrastructure, such as solar and wind power, which is still under-developed. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, have benefited from sizeable financial backing since the 1980s. Nevertheless, they remain something of a pipe dream: in addition to being too expensive, battery life is poor and they are still very “niche”.

The upshot is that these two technologies are seen as “innovations of tomorrow”. But now this never-ending tomorrow is fast approaching! The catalyst was the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference, aka COP21, which made energy transition a global priority. In response, the European Union has been rolling out incentive policies designed to decarbonise mobility, a sector responsible for quarter of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions. Although investors are stepping up, the automobile industry is less enthusiastic.

Auto industry under pressure

The study indicates that, notwithstanding the stated aims of the energy transition, the automotive industry was characterised by a “lock-in” phenomenon until 2019. In other words, combustion engines dominated the market, locking down the industry and preventing any alternatives from breaking through, despite increased investment in hydrogen and electricity technology post-COP21.

Things took a new turn with the introduction of the European “Green Deal” and its goal to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Combustion engines will be phased out gradually until they are eliminated from the European market by 2035. Manufacturers now have no choice but to adopt greener solutions to replace the soon-to-be-obsolete combustion engine.

The race to be green: hydrogen overtaken by electric

The study shows that green technologies, which were initially pitted against combustion engines, then began to wage their own civil war. And the automobile industry has come down on the side of electric: it’s more mature, easier to integrate into existing production chains and is facilitating the sector’s transition. By contrast, the transformation required for hydrogen is simply too radical: infrastructure, production, storage – everything needs to be re-engineered from the ground up!

The war in Ukraine, which has plunged Europe into an acute energy crisis, has only made matters worse. Hydrogen production requires too much electricity in a world that champions the advantages of a model based on reduced energy consumption and increased efficiency. Despite these challenges, hydrogen has not been discarded entirely. In the first instance, it has been limited to specific means of transportation: buses, heavy goods vehicles and intensive mobility with taxis and utility vehicles. But once again, the huge influx of electric trucks is threatening the uptake of hydrogen technology: 220 models of electric heavy-duty trucks were available internationally in 2023, compared to just 12 hydrogen models.

Fated to be a “perpetually emerging technology”

Even though hydrogen has lagged behind, the technology is still attracting investment. The research shows that energy crises and political developments periodically rekindle interest in the technology. Recent years have seen the emergence of new designs. For example, hydrogen could be used in liquid rather than gaseous form. It could also play a role in the development of synthetic fuels, potentially extending the lifespan of combustion-engine vehicles. Nevertheless, whenever it seems as though hydrogen’s time has finally come, the finish line disappears further into the distance.

Michaux turns to the concept of “perpetually emerging technology” to illustrate this idea. The term designates an innovation that is in a perpetual state of anticipation without ever being rolled out en masse. Will green hydrogen one day follow the same road as the electric car, which remained on the sidelines for many years before finally taking off? Nothing is certain. But there is a danger that hydrogen will continue to be the mobility “outsider” for some time to come.

Find out more

MICHAUX, Valéry. Transition énergétique et compétition entre technologies vertes. Le cas de l’hydrogène décarboné dans la mobilité. Revue Française de Gestion. https://shs.cairn.info/revue-francaise-de-gestion-2024-6-page-115?lang=fr&tab=texte-integral