The American presidential elections are coming up and they represent much more than a simple change of national leadership: their impact will go beyond the borders of the United States. Aside from their domestic effects, they will have profound repercussions on global stability and could mark a tipping point towards a new world order. Edgar Bellow, Ph.D., professor of geopolitics and international management at NEOMA Business School shares his insights.

The elections in the United States: victory for chaos or a final confrontation between the global West and the BRICS seeking revenge?

Today, two visions of the world are colliding. On one side you have the Western, or global, vision, championed by the U.S., and on the other is that of the emerging powers in the BRICS block (Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa), which aspire to redefine the international order.

Will the American elections provoke chaos inside the country, which would weaken the position of the U.S. in the world? Or, to the contrary, will they strengthen the global Western order and mark the start of a confrontation in which each bloc fights to impose its vision of the world’s future?

High-pressure elections: between interior crisis and polarisation

The United States has been struck by intense political polarisation, exacerbated by internal struggles between democrats and republicans. Each camp now represents opposing visions of internal politics as well as foreign affairs.

These conflicts within the country threaten the very stability of American democracy and fuel the scepticism that the citizens have of their leaders.

A divisive country weakens its authority on the international scene. It offers an opportunity for the BRICS powers to attack the established order. This is even more pronounced, as the U.S. seems more concerned with their economic struggles and social debates than their position as world leader.

If chaos or controversy descends on the election, the United States risks losing credibility and its ability to gather together its western allies. This internal disorder strengthens the posturing of China, Russia and other BRICS members. In this weakened situation, they see an opportunity to stand forward as an alternative to a western model in crisis.

The BRICS seeking out long-standing revenge

First formed as an economic coalition, the BRICS evolved into a block seeking to establish a political and strategic counterbalance to the American and European influence.

Each in their own way, these countries have clear ambitions for changing their geopolitical standing, particularly by integrating new nations into their alliance, such as Argentina and Egypt.

Their aim is clear: break western dominance of the global economic and political structures by proposing a multipolar model that defies American unipolarity.

The BRICS also seek to free themselves from their dependence on the American dollar, which directly threatens the economic dominance of the United States. Russia and China in particular are determined to use their influence to create financial and trade networks independent from the dollar. Such a scenario would weaken the American position even more.

This plan is part of a much broader desire for long-standing revenge against what they consider western dominance that for decades has exploited the resources and markets of developing nations for the benefit of their own interests.

The geopolitics of the American vote: the stakes for global western power

For the allies of the U.S., this American election is just as crucial. The rise of isolationist and anti-interventionist trends in the core of the American electorate threatens U.S. commitment to their traditional alliances, such as NATO and other strategic partnerships in the Asian-Pacific region.

A republican victory, particularly with an isolationist candidate, could lead to a withdrawal of the U.S. from several international commitments.

The BRICS would see such a reorientation as a weakening of the western powers and would strengthen its position in regions seeking new partnerships, particularly Africa and Latin America.

European allies in particular fear an American withdrawal, which would leave NATO and the European Union in a vulnerable position vis-à-vis Russia and China. This outlook could encourage Europe to adopt a more independent posture, even seek out compromises with the BRICS to guarantee its own stability.

Chaos as a driving force for global reconfiguration?

The 2024 American elections could trigger a profound fragmentation of the world order, caused by internal crises and ideological divisions. In fact, a weakened and divided democracy could open a path to a more fragmented multipolar world where no power could wield absolute control, where alliances would be reworked based on the strategic interests of each country.

For the BRICS, this scenario would represent an indirect victory because a divided and disorganised West would weaken American supremacy and open the path to a rebalancing of forces.

If, on the contrary, the elections result in internal stabilisation and a reaffirmation of America’s international involvement, this could mark the beginning of an even more direct confrontation between the global West and the BRICS. The U.S. and their allies could then strengthen their alliances to contain the influence of the BRICS with an intensification of tensions and sanctions, and even indirect confrontations on economic and technological grounds.

So, as for the question of knowing whether these elections will be a victory for chaos and the weakening of the U.S. or the start of a final confrontation between two opposing visions of the world, it is possible that the answer resides somewhere in the middle.